Cardano price could drop 15% as on-chain metrics pile against ADA bulls

• Cardano price shows signs that it might dip into the $1.02 to $1.19 demand zone.
• Transaction data shows that the uptrend for ADA will face massive resistance from $1.39 to $1.35.
• A decisive close above $1.48 will create a higher high and invalidate the bearish thesis.

Cardano price is at an inflection point in its downswing journey and is likely to head lower going forward. The predominant reason for this bearishness is due to the on-chain metrics, which is showing a decline in interest and capital inflow.

Cardano price might engineer a bull trap

Cardano price is currently experiencing a slowdown as it hovers around the $1.30 support level. While there might be a quick run-up, perhaps to retest the immediate barrier at $1.40, it is unsure if ADA can sustain it.

Since September 2, Cardano price has been on a relentless downtrend and shows no sign of stopping even as it grapples with another support level, just above the daily demand zone, extending from $1.02 to $1.19.

Market makers are likely to engineer liquidity by triggering a brief run-up to $1.34 or $1.40, but eventually, reverse the trend and drive ADA down to the daily demand zone, trapping the bulls.

ADA/USDT 4-hour chart

From a technical perspective, the downswing might not make sense, but IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model shows that a huge cluster of underwater investors is present between $1.39 to $1.35. Here, roughly 260,000 addresses purchased nearly 5.3 billion ADA at an average price of $1.36. 

Therefore, a potential spike in buying pressure that pushes Cardano price into this area is likely to be met with selling pressure from investors trying to break even. 

ADA IOMAP

Further supporting this bearish outlook is the decline in the transaction volume worth $100,000 or more for Cardano over the past three months from roughly 46 billion to 7.97 billion. This 82% drop in suggests that whales or high networth individuals are not interested in ADA at the current price levels.

ADA transaction volume chart

While things are looking grim for Cardano price from a technical and on-chain perspective, a decisive close above $1.48 will create a higher high, suggesting the start of a new uptrend. In this scenario, investors can expect ADA to continue its ascent to retest the $1.73 swing point.