Ethereum could drop to $1,800

• Ethereum price is now down over 50% from the all-time high.
• ETH is close to fulfilling one of the strongest bearish entry conditions in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system.
• Any support could trigger a tremendous rally.

Etheruem price action, like the rest of the cryptocurrency market, has been overwhelmingly bearish. Since last Monday, ETH has fallen more than 34% and is currently more than 50% below the all-time high.

Ethereum price must hold the $2,200 value area, or it risks a total capitulation move

Ethereum price has one sliver of support left, preventing a significant sell-off. The only Ichimoku condition keeping Ethereum afloat is the Chikou Span remaining above the body of the candlesticks. If there is a weekly close at $2,100 or lower, all the conditions needed for an Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout short entry will be fulfilled.

However, there are some signs that the current sell-off of Ethereum price may reverse and that any further selling is likely to be considered a ‘false’ move. The Composite Index oscillator has moved into new two-and-a-half-year lows, trading at the same level back in September 2019. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has fallen just below the final oversold level in a bull market at 30 – it can still move higher during the week and close above 30.

In particular, one oscillator reading best displays the overdone nature of this recent sell-off. The Optex Bands oscillator has fallen into oversold conditions for the first time in its history on the weekly chart. Additionally, the Optex Bands oscillator has also fallen to a level seen since the week of November 9, 2019. In other words, from the perspective of the Optex Bands oscillator, Etheruem price is hugely oversold.

ETH/USD Weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart

Failure to hold above $2,100 on the weekly chart would likely trigger a move to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at the $1,800 value area. In addition, a high volume node in the Volume Profile also exists at 1,800, lending more strength to that support zone.