Why The Bitcoin Price Is Staying Above $40,000

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The $40,000-plus range has been a key psychological level for the bitcoin price. Since the start of 2020, the bitcoin price has existed at or above $40,000 for 155 days, or 36% of the time. Since all of those 155 days happened in 2021, the price has existed at or above $40,000 on 59% of the days of this year. To dig in further, we can use the UTXO realized price distribution data to get some better context on Monday’s price decline and how the $43,460 closing price fits within the bigger picture.

Currently, 21.8% of supply is at or above the closing price level, showing a significant amount of interest for bitcoin changing hands at a higher range. On the other side, 19.4% of supply is above $20,000 and below the closing price with strong support built up in the $31,000 to $43,000 range. Roughly 25% of bitcoin supply exists above $40,000.

Each bar in the charts shows the amount of existing bitcoin that last moved within that price range. For bitcoin to drop below $40,000, we would have to see a significant sell-off in the market with many short-term investors realizing losses alongside a bigger structural change to long-term holders that accumulated in that 19.4% supply middle range.