A wave of optimism around the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has ignited bullish price action in the crypto market in recent weeks.
But that could be just the beginning: If a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF is greenlit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, it would mark a major milestone in the history of digital assets.
The ETF would provide institutional investors with a simple and regulated way to get exposure to Bitcoin, with potentially explosive consequences for the market.
According to many analysts, a spot Bitcoin ETF could spark a demand shock that, coupled with next year’s Bitcoin halving event, could spark the new crypto bull market.
The SEC has so far rejected all applications, but two main factors make the current batch of applications different.
One is the involvement of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, which filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year.
The second is the court ruling that required the SEC to revisit a previous rejection of Grayscale’s application, defining the regulator’s process as “arbitrary and capricious.”
“The Grayscale decision ultimately says that you can’t allow Bitcoin futures ETFs to trade and then argue that the same situation is not for spot Bitcoin ETFs,” said James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
That is why, according to Seyffart, the odds of an approval by early January are 90%.
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